Trends in exports and prices for Ukrainian wheat continue to attract considerable interest among market participants and analysts. Despite a certain degree of caution on the part of importers, Ukrainian traders are maintaining a steady pace of exports.
This is reported by analysts at the PUSK agricultural cooperative, according to ProAgro Group, citing information from the Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“As of 13 January, Ukraine had exported nearly 400,000 tonnes of wheat, and this figure is forecast to reach 1 million tonnes by the end of February. Against the backdrop of global restrictions and quotas affecting supply, we see stable export potential,” noted PUSK.
One of the key factors influencing price dynamics is the restriction on Russian wheat exports. According to analysts, traders are gradually raising their offers. The indicative price of wheat in Ukrainian ports ranges between $220–225 per tonne.
“January and February are the months when wheat prices traditionally peak. We expect the indicative export price for third-class wheat to reach $230 per tonne,” the experts added.
Analysts also highlighted the role of local factors in supporting prices. According to a memorandum signed between the Ukrainian Grain Association and the Ministry of Agriculture, wheat exports will not exceed 16.2 million tonnes. This helps to avoid sharp fluctuations in the domestic market.
“Competition between millers and exporters continues to stimulate the local market. This creates conditions for stable price growth, particularly during the winter period. On the domestic market, indicative prices for 2nd and 3rd class wheat are in the range of 9,500–10,300 UAH/t, depending on batch sizes. It is now important to monitor global trends and quotas in order to optimally allocate export volumes,” according to PUSK.
The next two months could be the best time to sell wheat.
“The market is likely to continue to ‘pick up’ until the end of winter. However, we should be prepared for potential fluctuations in March and April, when information on the state of the new harvest begins to emerge,” the analysts concluded.